Solid dozen for Preakness

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/13/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Triple Crown traveling carnival takes up residence in Baltimore this Saturday for the 135th running of the $1 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 3/16-mile race has attracted an evenly matched field of 12 three-year-olds for the second leg of racing's three-bagger.

Five of the starters are coming in from the Kentucky Derby headed by Run for the Roses winner Super Saver. Also coming back from the two-week break are Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado, defeated favorite and sixth-place finisher Lookin At Lucky, the seventh-place finisher Dublin and Jackson Bend who was 12th.

Super Saver, with Calvin Borel riding, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite after winning the Derby at 8-1. Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 Derby favorite, is the 3-1 second choice and will start from post seven on the immediate inside of Super Saver.

"There's not a really bad post in the Preakness," Lookin At Lucky's trainer Bob Baffert said. "I've won the race. I remember that Real Quiet got the 11. He was training so great and he got the 11, and I was just sick for a couple of days. Then all of a sudden I realized that at the end of the day it's the horse. If you have the horse, it doesn't matter what post you come out of."

Paddy O'Prado has been made the 9-2 third program pick after a major move up in the Derby. He again will start from post 10 with Kent Desormeaux out to redeem himself after his much talked about ride two weeks ago.

"Really, in a 12-horse field, there's not a terrible position to have," noted Paddy's trainer Dale Romans, "I didn't want to be in the one or 12 if we could help it, and anything else we were going to be happy with. Paddy didn't have a problem with the 10-hole in the Derby and I'd like to have him on the inside of First Dude. It gives us a few more options maybe."

Romans has First Dude in the Preakness with the colt breaking from post 11 and 20-1 in the program.

My Derby pick Dublin will break from the outside post with Garrett Gomez picking up the ride after losing the mount on Lookin At Lucky. His seventh- place finish at Churchill Downs has him at 10-1 in the morning-line.

Jackson Bend finished 19-lengths behind Super Saver two weeks ago, but is back for another try. He will be ridden by Mike Smith from post six and is 12-1 in the program.

The two 30-1 longshots are Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist, posts four and five respectively. Northern Giant was ninth in the Arkansas Derby and will be ridden by Terry Thompson who was on Dublin in the Derby. Yawanna Twist was second in the Illinois Derby and again will be handled by Edgar Prado.

At 20-1, in addition to First Dude, are Aikenite and Pleasant Prince. Aikenite is trained by Pletcher and is coming off a second-place finish in the Derby Trial. His inside post position should not be a factor,

"I suppose one wouldn't have been my first choice for Aikenite," Pletcher said, "but I really don't think the post positions are hugely important in this race. Eight was very good. I'm very happy with that."

Former jockey Wesley Ward sends out Pleasant Prince who was third in the Derby Trial. Eclipse Award winner Julien Leparoux has the mount from post three.

"I'm happy. I guess if I'd have been choosing one, Id have chosen four, five or seven," said owner Ken Ramsey. "But I'm happy with three. There's not much you can do about it, just take what you get. It's a lot different from the Derby. You've got almost half the number of horses, 12 compared to 20."

Trainer Derek Ryan sends out Schoolyard Dreams for a try at a second straight in-the-money Preakness finish. Last year Musket Man was third in both the Preakness and Kentucky Derby. Schoolyard Dreams is 15-1 in the program and will start from post two with Eibar Coa riding.

"I'd rather be down there than stuck way out on the outside," Ryan noted, "so we've got no complaints. He likes to be pretty close to the pace."

The only gelding in the field is Caracortado trained by Mike Machowsky. Paul Atkinson comes in from California to ride from the nine hole. Undefeated as a two-year-old, Caracortado is 10-1 in the morning-line.

"I'm thinking I might put my horse on the lead or in the race early," said Machowsky, "and I think the only other horse that has any sort of speed inside of me is Jackson Bend. We drew well. It's a solid field. I was talking to somebody this morning thinking that it's one of the best Preakness fields in a while as far as anybody can win it. I think all 12 horses have a shot."

Machowsky is absolutely correct. Any of the 12 has a chance to win the Preakness this year. That is why I will not be singling any of the entrants.

I liked Dublin in the Derby and will use him in a four horse exacta box. Along with Dublin I'm including Super Saver, Aikenite and Paddy O'Prado.

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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason

LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.

The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.

MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.

A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.

A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.

Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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