Pac-10 rivals meet at Pauley Pavilion

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/20/2007 - Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key Pac-10 battle takes place in Los Angeles this afternoon, as top-25 foes Arizona and UCLA battle it out in Pauley Pavilion.

The 11th-ranked Wildcats are trying to salvage something from their trip to the City of Angels, as they dropped their second straight game on Thursday, falling at USC by a score of 80-73. The loss leaves Lute Olson's squad at 13-4 overall and just 4-3 in league play.

Ben Howland's Bruins on the other hand, are sitting atop the conference standings, tied with Oregon at 5-1. UCLA moved to 16-1 overall on Thursday with a 10-point win over Arizona State (60-50) and stayed unbeaten at home at 10-0.

UCLA holds a 41-31 edge in the all-time series, opening things up a bit by winning each of the last three meetings, including a 71-59 decision in Los Angeles on March 10, 2006.

The Wildcats could not contain USC's Nick Young, who erupted for 22 of his 30 points in the second half, leading the hometown Trojans to the victory over Arizona on Thursday. Arizona struggled with its shot from behind the arc in the game, converting just 4-of-15 attempts, Despite winning the battle on the boards (40-32), UA committed 17 costly turnovers. The loss spoiled solid performances by several Wildcats, including Mustafa Shakur, who finished the game with 19 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Marcus Williams also finished with 19 points and eight boards. Ivan Radenovic notched a double- double with 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Chase Budinger chipped in 14 points and eight caroms. As was the case against USC, offense has not been a problem for the Wildcats this year, with the team netting a healthy 84.9 ppg, on .505 shooting. All five starters are averaging double digits, led by Williams' 18.5 ppg. Radenovic (16.1 ppg) and Budinger (15.5 ppg) complete the Pac-10's top frontcourt, while Shakur (14.6 ppg, team-high 129 assists) and Jawann McClellan (11.9 ppg) provide backcourt balance.

UCLA certainly has the offensive talent to win games at that end of the floor, but the team instead used stifling defense to knock off the Sun Devils a couple of days ago. The Bruins beat Arizona State on the boards (32-22) and forced ASU into 16 turnovers. In addition, UCLA really put the clamps on the second half, holding the visitors to a mere 13 points after the break. Offensively, UCLA struggled a bit, shooting .440 from the field and .280 from long range, while turning the ball over 15 times. Darren Collison led the way with 16 points and five assists. Backcourt partner Arron Afflalo added 13 points, while Josh Shipp chipped in with 12. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute scored just two points, but made an impact on the glass, grabbing a game-high 14 rebounds, including seven at the offensive end. On the season, UCLA has had an easier time of it offensively, scoring a healthy 75.1 ppg, on .490 shooting. Afflalo is one of three Bruins currently averaging double digits, leading the team with 16.0 ppg. Shipp and Collison follow with 14.5 and 13.3 ppg, respectively. Mbah a Moute adds 9.1 ppg and leads the team with nearly eight rebounds per outing (7.9).

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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