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12/20/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - List of things to do for you Ravens fans in the week preceding Christmas:
1. File a formal complaint with whoever is responsible for selecting the AFC Pro Bowl team (be sure to CC yourself, since fan voting makes up a large portion of the selection process). No Ray Lewis? No Bart Scott? Have the voters been paying attention to who is leading the NFL's top-ranked defense of the moment?
2. Get out your Ben Roethlisberger, Joey Porter, or Bill Cowher voodoo doll, and prick, prick, prick away. This Sunday's trip to meet the suddenly- resurgent Steelers will be huge for team confidence, and will also have major implications in regard to AFC Playoff seeding. The Ravens, who drilled the reigning Super Bowl champs (27-0) back in Week 12, haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2001 and have never swept the Steelers in a home-and-home.
3. Find out which channel, either on your Sirius radio or Direct TV package, you can find the Colts/Texans game, also scheduled for 1pm on Sunday afternoon. If the Ravens wish to secure a first-round bye, a loss by similarly 11-3 Indianapolis would be extremely helpful. The Colts would win a tie- breaker with Baltimore based on a better record against common opponents. Indy/Houston will be the game to flip to when the Ravens go to commercial.
4. Repeat Step 3, only switch Colts/Texans to Chargers/Seahawks, which is the 4pm Christmas Eve game that matters most. San Diego (12-2) is a game better than Baltimore at present, but since the Ravens own the tie-breaker over the Chargers based on a head-to-head win, Brian Billick and company still have a chance at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. You can even find yourself a Shaun Alexander No. 37 jersey to slip on in time for the Seahawks game. You'll probably be able to find one on the discount rack.
If that sounds like a busy week, it is certainly preferable to the alternative, experienced by all of Ravens nation last season.
Baltimore was 5-9 and headed nowhere at this time in 2005.
WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS, MY FRIENDS
It was a little on the anti-climatic side, but the Ravens' 27-17 victory over the Browns on Sunday, coupled with the Bengals' 34-16 loss in Indianapolis the following night, gave Baltimore its first division title since 2003.
The ability to add a new "2006 AFC North Champions" hat to the collection was a tad bittersweet for the Ravens, who were actually rooting for Cincinnati to defeat Indianapolis to improve their position in regard to earning a top-two seed. However, the fact that the Ravens wrapped up the division with two games left to play, when few (present company included) had predicted them to finish better than third before the season began, was an impressive achievement nonetheless.
"We're still in the battle to get homefield and let the playoffs go through Baltimore," said Ravens linebacker Bart Scott. "Hopefully, we can keep chugging along because we know it's a huge advantage and something we're fighting for. By no means do we shut it down here."
The division crown was just the second in Ravens team history. Baltimore was a Wild Card entry when it won the Super Bowl in 2000, and also went as a Wild Card in 2001. The Ravens were 20-17 First-Round losers to the Titans following their only previous division title, in '03.
McNAIR SCARE
Sunday's win over the Browns will likely be best-remembered for the hand injury that kept quarterback Steve McNair out for most of the afternoon. McNair had his hand stepped on by Cleveland linebacker Andra Davis in the first quarter, and though he could have returned, Billick opted to leave him on the sideline to avoid re-aggravating the injury. McNair is expected to start in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Former starter Kyle Boller stepped in for McNair, the second time this season that the 2003 No. 1 pick has played meaningful minutes. Boller, who also played extensively in a 23-21 loss to the Panthers in Week 6, completed 13- of-21 passes for 238 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against Cleveland. Boller's passer rating was raised to 104.0 in the victory.
PRO BOWLING
Though there were notable Ravens omissions on the AFC Pro Bowl roster, including Lewis, Scott, and defensive tackle Kelly Gregg, Baltimore did manage to place five players on the squad.
From the defense, linebacker Adalius Thomas and safety Ed Reed were both named, starters and linebacker Terrell Suggs and cornerback Chris McAlister reserves. On offense, tackle Jonathan Ogden was the only player selected.
It was the ninth career Pro Bowl citation for Ogden, the third for Reed and McAlister, and the second for Suggs and Thomas.
Kicker Matt Stover, tight end Todd Heap and special teams stalwart Gary Stills were all listed as Pro Bowl alternates, as was Lewis. A selected player at each's position would have to bow out in order for any of the above to make the trip to Hawaii.
QUICK HITS
-Running back Jamal Lewis rushed 22 times for a season-high-tying 109 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, leaving him just 14 yards shy of the fifth 1,000-yard season of his career. After scoring one touchdown in his first seven games, Lewis has scored seven times in his last seven contests.
-Rookie wide receiver Demetrius Williams posted his first career 100-yard game on Sunday, with most of the damage coming on a 77-yard catch from Boller that staked Baltimore to a 24-17 lead in the third quarter. The fourth-round draft pick out of Oregon is the third Raven this season to post a 100-yard receiving game, joining Mark Clayton (3 times) and Derrick Mason (once). Williams joins Clayton as the only Ravens rookies to accomplish the feat.
-Scott (9.5 sacks) and Suggs (8 sacks) have two games to join Ravens end Trevor Pryce (12 sacks) and linebacker Adalius Thomas (10 sacks) in the double-digit sacks category, which would make Baltimore the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10 or more sacks.
NEXT UP: PITTSBURGH
The Steelers hold a 13-8 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Ravens, but as mentioned, were routed, 27-0, when the teams met in Baltimore in Week 12. The teams split last year's home-and-home, including a 20-19 Pittsburgh win when the teams met for a Monday Night showdown in the Steel City in Week 8. The home team has won the last eight installments of the series since Pittsburgh won in Baltimore during the 2002 campaign. The Ravens are 0-4 in regular season games played in Pittsburgh since last winning there in 2001.
Pittsburgh won the only postseason meeting between the teams, a 27-10 triumph in a 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff at home.
Pittsburgh head coach Bill Cowher is 14-8 against Baltimore all-time (including postseason), while Billick is 7-9 overall against both Cowher and the Steelers.
<< Tomlinson among AFC Players of the Week
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Diego Chargers standout running
back LaDainian Tomlinson, Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney and
Buffalo Bills punter Brian Moorman took home the weekly AFC honors for Week 15
of the
<< Grossman, Dawkins, Turk earn Player of the Week honors
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bears quarterback Rex Grossman,
Philadelphia Eagles safety Brian Dawkins and St. Louis Rams punter Matt Turk
have been named the NFC Players of the Week for Week 15.
Grossman was named Offensi
<< 49ers' Smith shows his leadership
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everyone was as sure as Pacific Northwest rainfall that
Seattle would avenge an early-season defeat against the 49ers last Thursday,
and in the process clinch the NFC West.
But Alex Smith had a different idea.
Smith sho
<< Injuries, inconsistency plague Browns once again
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns lost another game this past Sunday.
That should have come as no surprise, considering they were facing a very good
Baltimore Ravens squad on the road.
Romeo Crennel's troops displayed grit, fighting ba
Clippers need to find their game >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Expectations are high for the Los Angeles Clippers this
season. After winning 47 games during the 2005-06 campaign and advancing to
the conference semifinals, the Clippers are expected to be a factor in the
West.
The Cl
Carolina places Wahle, Rucker on IR >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Panthers placed offensive
lineman Mike Wahle and defensive end Mike Rucker on injured reserve Wednesday.
Wahle will undergo surgery within the next week to repair a torn labrum in his
righ
The Rockets are Yao's team >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All-Star center Yao Ming has been huge for Houston, which
is a solid 15-9 and is 3 1/2 games behind the first place San Antonio Spurs in
the Southwest Division. The second place Dallas Mavericks are just one game
behind
Braves agree to terms with Woodward >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves and infielder/outfielder
Chris Woodward agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2007 season on
Wednesday.
Financial terms of the deal were not announced.
Woodward, 30, played
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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