Flyers try to continue mastery of Isles

Hockey Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will be attempting to extend their current home winning streak in tonight's matchup with a New York Islanders team they've dominated over the past few seasons from the Wachovia Center.

The Flyers have won four straight and 10 of their last 12 outings on home ice and began a four-game residency with Sunday's 3-1 decision over Toronto. Goaltender Michael Leighton stopped 27-of-28 shots in a strong effort between the pipes, while Danny Briere, Simon Gagne and Jeff Carter all scored goals to help Philadelphia halt a two-game losing streak.

Carter gave the Flyers a 1-0 lead with a power-play tally in the first period, while Gagne and Briere lit the lamp just 1:16 apart late in the second to halt a 1-1 tie. Leighton made the lead stand by making 10 saves over the final 20 minutes.

"The game wasn't pretty," said defenseman Chris Pronger, who contributed two assists on the night. "I don't know if it was a byproduct of the style that Toronto plays or a product of how we play. We rebounded in the second period. It wasn't looking very pretty the first 15 minutes, then we kind of got our legs underneath us and got going."

Mike Richards had an assist on Carter's goal and has notched at least one point in five consecutive games, with the Flyers captain compiling three goals and five assists during that span.

Philadelphia, now 19-11-2 at the Wachovia Center for the season, will also be trying to keep another impressive streak intact this evening. The Flyers have defeated the Islanders 14 straight times, the longest active stretch of victories over any single opponent in the NHL, with four of those wins having taken place in 2009-10.

New York hasn't downed Philadelphia since a 4-3 verdict at Nassau Coliseum on February 12, 2008. The Islanders' most recent triumph in the City of Brotherly Love occurred on April 7, 2007, with the club having dropped its last nine meetings as the visitor in this one-sided series.

In addition, the Islanders enter tonight's clash on a seven-game road losing streak following Thursday's 6-3 setback at Atlanta. New York followed up that performance with a 3-2 home defeat to Boston on Saturday, the team's 11th loss in its last 14 overall tests.

The Islanders outshot the Bruins by a 39-34 margin for the game, but only Josh Bailey and Matt Moulson were able to sneak the puck past Boston's Tim Thomas. Moulson's goal gave him a point in five consecutive games (2 goals, 3 assists) and was his team-best 23rd of the season.

New York fell despite a solid showing from veteran netminder Dwayne Roloson, with the 40-year-old coming through with 31 saves in a losing cause.

"We always play with a lot of energy and because of that, we had a lot of mental mistakes," said Islanders head coach Scott Gordon of the game. "It's not a physical thing. If you can skate from line to line and avoid a defenseman and then try to avoid finishing a check, it's not following through [and] you're taking the easy way out."

The Islanders' rough recent stretch has placed them 14th out of 15 Eastern Conference teams with 60 points. Philadelphia presently stands sixth in the East with 72 points, two better than seventh-place Montreal.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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